In 1858, Allahabad became the capital of India for just one day. Today, something similar is happening in holy Prayag. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, nearly his entire Cabinet, and his able general Amit Shah are gathered to decode the outcome of a crucial conflict that will shape the vectors of their party, ideology and the national narrative. Indeed, conclaves and congregations do not win elections. But they set the tone, tenor and terminology for the battle afterwards.
Shah, the pugnacious political power player and warrior-strategist, has chosen Allahabad as his choice for showcasing the BJP’s might, with eyes set on Lucknow. His leader and party seized the supreme seat of Indraprastha, mainly thanks to the 73 MPs from Uttar Pradesh. For Modi and Shah, the historic highway connecting UP to 7 Race Course Road starts at Allahabad. As a city that dates back to the Vedas, Allahabad is perhaps the most venerated venue to launch their agenda of Vikas-hindutva. It is also where Shah’s second important battle begins. As the state in-charge during the 2013 elections, he had forged an unprecedented social engineering model, single-handedly.
Over two decades have passed since the BJP held its national executive in a UP city. Allahabad was the womb of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Today, the City of the Gandhis has been painted saffron with flags and buntings. It would be for the first time that almost the entire political establishment of India is camping in Allahabad to blow their conch against rivals. Outwardly, the national executive agenda hardly deviates from the past. It will debate and discuss the current political, economic and international situation. Party leaders will move pre-decided resolutions condemning opponents and eulogising the stellar performance of the PM and his government. But amid the pomp and show, the party will also unfurl its 250-seat victory plan. The BJP barely has 42 seats in the 404-member UP Assembly. Shah and team may be upbeat about BJP’s victory in the state, particularly after its performance with panache in Assam, but state leaders are worried about the serious challenges it faces.
- The BJP lacks a credible chief ministerial candidate. In a state dominated by two major caste-based outfits, the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, it is finding it extremely enervating to discover a leader with the clout to break the vice-like grip of Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav over their caste and community vote banks. Shah took a calculated risk by appointing Keshav Maurya, a controversial backward community leader, as the party’s state president. But Maurya lacks any significant following among the cadres. Though almost a dozen Union ministers hail from the state, only Home Minister Rajnath Singh can turn the tables on the BJP’s adversaries. Singh, who is a Thakur and a farmer, has been out of state politics for almost a decade. For non-political reasons, however, a section of the central leadership wants him to lead the party in UP because he is its most visible face. Both Modi and Shah are unwilling to go to the polls without a CM face because of the BJP’s dismal experience in Delhi and Bihar. They hope a powerful personality may emerge baptised by the waters of the sangam to confront foes, if not win a majority.
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- Another formidable challenge for the BJP is finding a winnable slogan with a saleable agenda for governance. The party expects to make deteriorating law and problem in UP its main poll plank. But BSP enjoys better reputation and credibility on handling crime in the state. Mayawati not only arrested deadly dons but also threw her party MPs and MLAs with criminal connections in jail. The saffron party plans to exploit the anti-incumbency factor of the Samajwadi Party. But BJP’s opponents are successfully attacking its MPs for letting their constituencies down by failing to procure Central funds for various development schemes.
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Finding 400 candidates, who can win or give a tough fight to other parties, is perhaps Shah’s most daunting task. During the Allahabad conclave, he is likely to get ground-level reports on the party’s standing in each constituency. In the past two years, the BJP has performed miserably in byelections. Party MPs who became ministers could not ensure the return of their replacements from seats they vacated. For the past few months, special teams deputed to gauge the reputations and winning prospects of various prospective candidates have been doing due diligence. But striking a correct caste and community angle is proving to be a headache for the leadership.
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- Shah could win 73 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 thanks to Modi’s personal popularity and by striking deals with smaller regional outfits and local satraps. Now, they are reluctant to align with the BJP for fear of losing their support base. Apna Dal has already voted against its former ally in the Rajya Sabha elections. The Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal has decided to join the Samajwadi-led coalition after failing to get a poll-deal assurance from the BJP.
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- The BJP is also uncertain about the possible impact of the communal polarisation of votes. With the Ram Mandir agenda on the back-burner, attempts by fringe saffron elements to create sectarian tensions in UP are proving counterproductive. Minority voters have the power to decide the outcome in almost 100 seats and no solution is in sight to divide Muslim votes.
Hence, the Allahabad Declaration will have to provide effective solutions for many fundamental issues that confront the BJP in the country’s largest state. Allahabad was ancient India’s intellectual and cultural capital. It is also the city of Prime Ministers since seven of 15 Indian PMs were either born or studied there. Many political scripts have been exhibited or written on the sandy banks of Prayag that went on to dictate the destiny of the Mughals, British and Congress and, therefore, India’s. This year in Allahabad, will the BJP be able to write a new one that denotes its destiny in 2019?
