Articles

Budget numbers miss dream target

Predictability is the kryptonite of rulers. Manful manoeuvres and deceptive dictates are virtues of power if Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s template is adopted as the modern Arthasastra. He is the master of big numbers—making India a $5 trillion economy in half a decade is just a matter of moments. All Indian budgets since 2014 have been conceived with numbers than through a defined economic ideology, though they rarely change the economy’s basic structure that moves on its own stream.

But they are vehicles of an elitist narrative. All nine Modi budgets had surprise elements, but not Budget 23. A week before FM Nirmala Sitharaman presented her last full pre-poll Budget, know-all economists, industry leaders, barely informed netas and journalists were confidently announcing a tax rebate for the middle class and enhancement of capital expenditure and infrastructure allocation. When Sitharaman read out her unlike-Modi budget, no big dreams or deliverables emerged though the PM announced "there is something for everyone in this Budget." Indeed. Income tax concessions made the headlines. Business forums predictably lauded the sarkar for promising to spend more so that their order books won’t dry up. But why are the big numbers missing?

North Block mandarins are perplexed since they weren't asked to think big or manufacture a wow factor. Since most economic minds advising the government is better known for their degrees than their doctrines, an out-of-the-box big idea was a mirage. However, scuttlebutt indicates that come middle-level civil servants attempted to float the figure of a Rs 50 lakh crore budget in tune with the $5 trillion doctrine. During informal consultations, the usual suspects like obscure economists, retired hacks-turned-part-time economists, industry leaders, and labour and kisan union honchos gave numerous suggestions to the PMO and the Finance Ministry for expanding government expenditure. They thought it wasn't a utopian concept since Central expenditure has grown exponentially during the past couple of years from Rs 32 lakh crore (2021-2022) to Rs 38 crore (2022-2023.)

The administration’s number crunchers asked for capital expenditure to be raised to Rs 1 lakh and funds for social sectors like health, education, etc., to be increased by at least 30 per cent. Accounting for farmers’ anger, they also suggested giving the agriculture sector additional funds. But when the figures were totalled, a huge gap between proposed expenditure and sources of income was visible. The government was already under attack for the rising deficit. So, instead of moving more rupees to schemes like NREGA and 58-odd Centrally funded programs, out came the pruning shears with the Railways and Housing sector getting more in their pockets. But the Rs 45 lakh crore figures is still Rs 5 lakh crore short of the dream target. Even in the absence of single big number, Sitharaman has given enough tiny numbers to the party to go to town and make noise about the first Amrit Kaal Budget.

Saffron CMs Facing Poll Heat

Elections are double-engine deliveries—heartaches and hope for incumbent chief ministers. As the poll countdown for Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh begins, both sitting chief ministers and chief ministers-in-waiting are spending sleepless nights. Despite drafting a winning strategy that includes publicity, bureaucratic reshuffle and talent-trawling to replace political NPAs they aren’t sure about their continuity in office. Not because of non performance but because of internecine rebellion. Though two Congress Chief Ministers—Ashok Gehlot of Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh—seem secure on their perches, Karnataka’s SR Bommai and Madhya Pradesh’s Shivraj Chouhan are facing the heat. Both BJP CMs are in the crossfire between the originals and the newcomers. Chouhan is the senior most CM among all BJP chief ministers.

He has won state elections thrice and given a fairly stable and relatively efficient government. He has warded off repeated Congress attacks to topple his government. Moreover, he is hyper-active as a leader always on the road and accessible to the cadres. He is also the BJP’s most popular backward face in the state and one of the most energetic second engines among the dozen odd saffron CMs.  Above all, he has no national ambitions. Additionally, he is the only sitting chief minister from the Atal-Advani era. However, many central leaders are telling Modi that Chouhan is facing strong anti incumbency and it is time for a younger face. Similarly in Karnataka, the leadership in under pressure to replace Bommai, a Yedurappa protégé.  As his mentor acquires the role of a back seat driver, Bommai is facing massive criticism on government malfunctioning and absence of charisma needed to dazzle voters. He also faces a re-energised Congress which is buoyant on new winds of change. Since Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka together have 55 Lok Sabha MPs, Modi and his team are weighing the pros and cons of making drastic moves. Is the Old still Gold and Hold? The same question is being raised in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where the old guard led by Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh, whose merely ceremonial national responsibilities indicate that they have been sidelined. Insiders feel that without their active support, the BJP’s chances are dismal in both states. It is Modi call to hug or shrug.


Linking States with the Centre

So far, the double engine sarkar has been just a political slogan with the BJP asking voters to choose the same party for the Centre. Now the states are given a new label of possible growth engines fuelled by the PMO. During the past five years, its image makers made it mandatory that all publicity material and platforms must feature photos of the prime minister with the chief minister of the relevant state. Now for the first time, the state and the central government bureaucracy will work together in BJP ruled-states to ensure that Vision Modi is faultlessly and fully implemented. Key state government officials including the Chief Secretary, DGP and heads of Public Relations and the Information department have been advised to deal straight with the PMO for the implementation of the PM’s favourite schemes. Information and Publicity officials are in direct touch with the PMO and the party’s media department for advice on advertisement creatives They have to ensure uniformity of the message and the messenger—the Prime Minister. A calendar of events for laying foundations and inaugurating old schemes has been finalised to guarantee that Modi dominates prime time headlines in the electronic media and front page photographs in print during next 15 months. The states have been advised to provide huge publicity budget in their state budgets even if it means cutting down the allocation of other departments.  The party is convinced that the PM’s omnipresence will embolden the CM’s authority and acceptability as well.